Christmas day is shaping up to be a significant severe weather event.
I am also not ruling out tornadoes and severe weather for our area, and here is why.
We will be in the warm sector. Initially, the models had us just slightly north of the warm, moist air, meaning we would mostly be experiencing heavy rain changing over to snow showers on Wednesday. But from what I'm seeing on the NAM, we are going to be warm and moist enough that we could also experience some nasty weather. CAPE is very low, but as we have seen with many other southeastern US severe weather events, we don't need a lot of instability if everything else is in place. Right now, it appears most everything is in place.
The most significant weather, in my opinion, is going to start Christmas day in Southern LA and MS, then move over into central to southern AL. But as the day progresses, a huge squall line is going to form, bringing with it the threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. This squall line looks like it will remain a threat through the overnight hours.
This is the EHI for the afternoon on the 25th...
Everyone has their favorite weather maps to look at, and for tornadoes, I tend to look at EHI. I don't know why it is my favorite, but it is.. haha... It is just a good way to see where rotating thunderstorms can occur.
Anyway.. I'm out of forecasting practice, so this storm will let me brush up a little bit hopefully. This storm makes me nervous, because people are going to be distracted with Christmas day activities and probably not paying attention to the weather.
On the bright side, the flip side of this storm gives us a chance of snow showers Wednesday-Thursday!!
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